Says Pro Football Focus:
The Eagles fittingly slot in behind the Colts due to their Week 1 matchup against Washington, the worst team in the NFL.
It is a fair comparison between the Eagles and Colts, which is why this exercise is worthwhile.
The Eagles are 6.5-point road favorites to Washington and the Colts are 7-point road favorites to Jacksonville.
It is a tossup between Washington and Jacksonville for the worst team in the NFL, so our process rightly identifies the Colts as better in the eyes of the betting market.
Our simulation is also lower on the Eagles than consensus betting markets, as both their win total and “no” to make the playoffs provide value at their current price.