Since basketball’s humble 1891 origins with peach baskets, it’s become one of the world’s most popular sports betting options.
Making NBA bets such as on point spreads and the over/under total score is relatively simple. However, practical strategies can be somewhat complex and confusing for newbie bettors.
It’s critical to have the tools required for success, including a positive attitude. Like having a reliable internet connection for gaming, the right mindset is also needed for online betting, such as on the National Basketball Association.
Here are some NBA betting strategies to incorporate into an overall sports betting system.
Watch for Betting Line Movement
Many sports bettors don’t watch how a betting line moves. Thus, bettors who can do that have the advantage to place better bets.
One option is “fading the public.” In other words, the public often heavily bets on one team based on reputation or past performance instead of if the squad is a better team than its hardwood opponent.
Here’s an example:
Brooklyn Nets -5 vs. Boston Celtics
In this scenario, the media may report that the storied Celtics are highly overrated, which may cause the public to bet on Boston.
If the line moves to Nets -3, this is likely a sign that experts are fading the public and picking the New York team.
Suppose one sees line movement that’s likely due to public betting. It’s worth considering the option to fade the public even before sports betting sharks start going against the flow.
Look for “Value Bets”
In many cases, oddsmakers provide sharp odds close to the probability of a particular outcome in sports betting, such as that of the NBA games.
That said, one can still look for value bets with “longer odds” (higher risk) that can help win bigger payouts.
The key is for bettors to follow the “do your homework” rule and look for such value bets.
Road Favorites Following a Blowout Loss
A crushing defeat may deflate a team. One popular betting strategy is to take the road favorite in this situation.
Oddsmakers often review such matchups and determine that a team is strong enough in terms of talent, not only to win a game but cover the spread.
Always look for an X-factor. In this case, it’s a fired-up team that was just humiliated by a loss with an enormous point differential.
Betting trends show that teams blown out by a wide margin (for example, 15-plus points) tend to win their next games as road favorites.
Look for Strengths and Weaknesses
It would help if one evaluated NBA bets to figure out where a bettor’s having success and where they need to improve.
For example, a person may be better at certain bets like over/under, moneyline, or prop bets.
Reviewing one’s success rate for certain types of bets gives bettors the chance to tweak the bankroll. That, in turn, may boost a wagerer’s chance of making the best bets.
Huge Home Underdogs
NBA teams don’t like to lose and may be embarrassed if they’re big home dogs for their next game. History shows that big home underdogs (for example, ten or more points) generally cover the spread.
A few critical factors are at play in this situation. One is that the home underdog doesn’t want to get embarrassed in front of its fans.
Another factor is that even if the road team takes a big lead, it may let up, which allows the home team to stay in the game. For instance, they may rest their starters and put their second-string team on the game.
There’s more. Another issue to weigh is that the heavy-favorite road teams may focus on winning the game since “a win is a win.”
It’s another way bettors on a big home underdog have a chance to win the wager.
Injured and Resting Players
It’s probably not headline news that injuries are a significant factor in determining NBA betting odds. Before betting on an NBA game, research which players are on the injury report and how likely they’ll play in the game.
Another factor is that, sometimes, coaches rest starters. This practice is quite common if a team has a commanding lead in the standings as the playoffs approach.
Players that recently racked up lots of playing time could be rested for a game. This coach’s decision can affect the team’s productivity.
One or two NBA stars out of a game due to injuries or resting can hugely impact betting odds. These factors can help explain why a powerhouse team is a slight favorite or even an underdog for its next game.
Review a Team’s Schedule
Even pro athletes get tired, right? So it’s a noteworthy factor when making NBA bets due to the players competing in a long 82-game season.
NBA schedules can include several games in a week and even long road trips.
Review how many games a particular NBA team has played recently and whether it’ll be taking multiple cross-country trips in a week, for example.
Such scheduling will become a bigger factor as the season progresses, like after the first quarter.
This situation can provide chances for “value bets” like selecting a well-rested home underdog, for example.
The NBA betting strategies mentioned above are easy to incorporate into an overall sports betting system. As always, bettors should bet with their heads rather than their hearts.
The right hoops betting strategies deliver the best chances of bets being a swish shot instead of an air-ball.
- Where basketball was invented