By Harry Allison
Here’s our draft morning expectation for tonight’s NFL draft:
32. Kansas City Chiefs (trade with EAGLES)
Needs: G, NT, CB, TE
Pick: TE Hayden Hurst
Analysis: The Chiefs and Eagles are ideal trade partners; the Chiefs don’t have a first-round pick but do have extra mid-round picks, while the Eagles don’t pick in the second or third round. The Chiefs use this pick to get Patrick Mahomes another big target.
1. Cleveland Browns
Needs: QB, CB, DT, OT, WR
Pick: QB Sam Darnold, Southern Cal
Analysis: Everyone knows the Browns will take a quarterback, but few people know which one. Josh Allen, with his huge arm, is enticing. So are Josh Rosen’s confidence and Baker Mayfield’s swagger and playmaking ability. But the Browns go with the safest, cleanest prospect in Darnold, who should take over for Tyrod Taylor by midseason.
2. New York Giants
Needs: DE, QB, RB, LB, CB, OT
Pick: DE Bradley Chubb, North Carolina State
Analysis: The Giants want to win now with Eli Manning, so taking a quarterback this high would just put the rebuilding process into motion. Saquon Barkley is tempting, but this is a deep running back class. The G-Men need a replacement for Jason Pierre-Paul, and take the best pass rusher in the draft.
3. New York Jets
Needs: QB, TE, DE, RB, WR
Pick: QB Baker Mayfield, Oklahoma
Analysis: The Jets really want Darnold, but they’ll happily settle for Mayfield in this spot. Mayfield is undersized for the position, but his college production was off the charts, his dynamic playmaking will be a huge hit in New York, and the fans will like his brash attitude as well.
4. Arizona Cardinals (trade with Cleveland)
Needs: QB, WR, CB, ILB, OT
Pick: QB Josh Rosen, UCLA
Analysis: With Darnold in pocket, the Browns trade the fourth pick to a quarterback-desperate team. The Cardinals make their move, trading the 15th pick and next year’s first-rounder to move up and draft Rosen, a classic pocket passer who should be ready to start right away.
5. Denver Broncos
Needs: RB, CB, DE, G, QB
Pick: RB Saquon Barkley, Penn State
Analysis: The Broncos need an infusion of youth on defense, and of course QB Josh Allen is still on the board. But instead they choose to beef up their run game and add weapons around Case Keenum. And they don’t come any better than Barkley, the best pure talent in the draft.
6. Indianapolis Colts
Needs: CB, OLB, DT, WR, OT, G, RB
Pick: CB Minkah Fitzpatrick, Alabama
Analysis: The Colts are undergoing a total rebuild and have needs up and down the depth chart. LB Roquan Smith is intriguing, but they instead go with Fitzpatrick to replace Vontae Davis. Fitzpatrick gives them a defensive cornerstone who can play outside, slot, and safety.
7. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Needs: RB, G, OT, CB, S, DE
Pick: G Quenton Nelson, Notre Dame
Analysis: The Bucs would be thrilled if Barkley drops to them at 7, but that doesn’t seem likely. Jameis Winston needs better protection, and Bucs GM Jason Licht races to the podium to draft Nelson, a three-year starter and the cleanest offensive line prospect in the draft.
8. Buffalo Bills (trade with Chicago)
Needs: QB, G, DT, OT, LB
Pick: QB Josh Allen, Wyoming
Analysis: The Bills remain patient as three QBs go off the board in the first four picks, and find a way to trade up for Allen without dealing both first-round picks. Allen and his big arm will do well in Buffalo, where he will have to deal with the elements.
9. San Francisco 49ers
Needs: OT, NT, CB, LB, TE
Pick: LB Roquan Smith, Georgia
Analysis: The 49ers need to beef up their defense after spending resources on the offense in free agency. A young cornerback is tempting, but they suddenly might need a new middle linebacker considering Reuben Foster’s legal situation. They need a linebacker anyway, and Smith is a solid addition.
10. Oakland Raiders
Needs: OT, RB, CB, TE, ILB
Pick: LB Tremaine Edmunds, Virginia Tech
Analysis: The Raiders will be churning a lot of the roster under new coach Jon Gruden, and they could stand to get Derek Carr more weapons. But Edmunds is too good to pass up, offering a rangy, athletic, and versatile three-down linebacker as the new centerpiece of the defense.
11. Miami Dolphins
Needs: OT, LB, CB, DT, QB
Pick: CB Denzel Ward, Ohio State
Analysis: The Dolphins aren’t quite ready to give up on Ryan Tannehill, so they don’t make a play for Lamar Jackson or any other quarterback. They would race to the podium if Edmunds were available. But he isn’t, so they add another talented cornerback to their shaky secondary.
12. Chicago Bears (trade with Buffalo)
Needs: OLB, CB, DE, OT, ILB, WR
Pick: DE/OLB Harold Landry, Boston College
Analysis: The Bears are starting over with a new coaching staff, and need help up and down their defense. They start by beefing up their pass rush with Landry, a speedy edge rusher who should fit well into the rotation as a 3-4 outside linebacker.
13. Washington Redskins
Needs: TE, NT, CB, WR, G
Pick: CB Josh Jackson, Iowa
Analysis: The Redskins seem like a candidate to trade down because the board doesn’t necessarily meet their needs here. But they could definitely use a young cornerback to pair with Josh Norman, and they go with Jackson, who had eight interceptions and was a first-team All-American last year.
14. Green Bay Packers
Needs: TE, G, RB, OLB, WR, CB
Pick: DE/OLB Marcus Davenport, Texas-San Antonio
Analysis: The Packers are going young under new GM Brian Gutekunst, and definitely could get Aaron Rodgers another weapon. But they also need front-seven help, and Davenport is a physical specimen who can learn for a year under Clay Matthews.
15. Cleveland Browns (trade with Arizona)
Needs: QB, CB, DT, OT, WR
Pick: NT Vita Vea, Washington
Analysis: The Browns have a sizable hole at nose tackle after trading away Danny Shelton, and fill it with Vea, who has freakish strength and athleticism and can immediately be a first- and second-down player in Cleveland.
16. Baltimore Ravens
Needs: DT, LB, WR, G, CB, QB
Pick: WR Calvin Ridley, Alabama
Analysis: Joe Flacco still has four years left on his deal, but I can’t shake the thought that the Ravens will make a play for Lamar Jackson. But they desperately need receivers, even after signing Willie Snead, and GM Ozzie Newsome likes his Alabama players.
17. Los Angeles Chargers
Needs: MLB, OLB, TE, S, QB
Pick: S Derwin James, Florida State
Analysis: The Chargers have a bigger need for an inside linebacker, but they also could use a young, physical safety, and James is too tempting to pass up. He can play center field or cover tight ends, and can even play linebacker.
18. New Orleans Saints (trade with Seattle)
Needs: DT, TE, QB, CB, LB
Pick: QB Lamar Jackson, Louisville
Analysis: Last year, Kansas City was the team that came out of nowhere and made a big play for Patrick Mahomes. Now it’s the Saints, with Drew Brees at 39, making the move for their quarterback of the future, trading next year’s first-rounder to Seattle.
19. Dallas Cowboys
Needs: CB, S, OT, LB, TE
Pick: OT Mike McGlinchey, Notre Dame
Analysis: The Cowboys could use more secondary help, and a young tight end to groom under Jason Witten. But they have a hole at right tackle, even after signing Cam Fleming, and fill it with the best prospect in the draft.
20. Detroit Lions
Needs: TE, DE, OLB, S, CB, G
Pick: CB Mike Hughes, Central Florida
Analysis: The Lions are remaking their defense under Matt Patricia, and need help at the edge and the secondary. They called Malcolm Butler during free agency and could always use another cornerback, and they pick up talented but troubled Mike Hughes.
21. Cincinnati Bengals
Needs: TE, DE, C, G, DT
Pick: C Billy Price, Ohio State
Analysis: The Bengals need help in the trenches, much more so on the offensive line, where they have a gaping hole at center. Price makes too much sense, a four-year starter at center and guard from nearby Ohio State.
22. Buffalo Bills
Needs: QB, G, DT, OT, LB
Pick: LB Rashaan Evans, Alabama
Analysis: After landing their quarterback, the Bills wrap up their successful draft by taking Evans, a versatile linebacker who will replace Preston Brown and add even more speed to Sean McDermott’s impressive defense.
23. New England Patriots
Needs: LB, OT, QB, CB, TE, RB
Pick: LB Leighton Vander Esch, Boise State
Analysis: The Patriots need an offensive tackle, and the quarterback conundrum is there. Instead they fill an immediate need with Vander Esch, a tackling machine and three-down linebacker who would be a higher pick if not for injury concerns.
24. Carolina Panthers
Needs: WR, DE, CB, TE, OT, S
Pick: WR D.J. Moore, Maryland
Analysis: The Panthers need a young pass rusher, a young cornerback, and some offensive line help. But with Devin Funchess and Torrey Smith as the top two receiving options, they need to get Cam Newton another weapon. Moore is a physical receiver in the mold as Steve Smith.
25. Tennessee Titans
Needs: OLB, ILB, G, TE, DE
Pick: G Will Hernandez, UTEP
Analysis: The Titans really could use linebacker help — both inside and at edge rusher – and don’t be surprised to see them trade up. But in this scenario, with the top edge rushers off the board, they beef up their offensive line with Hernandez.
26. Atlanta Falcons
Needs: TE, DE, WR, G, CB
Pick: G/C Frank Ragnow, Arkansas
Analysis: The Falcons could use a couple of young weapons for Matt Ryan, and definitely need another edge rusher. But the offensive line always can be improved, and Ragnow was a three-year starter and a plug-and-play at right guard or center.
27. Seattle Seahawks (trade with New Orleans)
Needs: RB, WR, DE, CB, G, S
Pick: RB Derrius Guice, LSU
Analysis: The Seahawks still don’t have a second- or third-round pick, so don’t be surprised if they trade down again. But if not, they fill a big need at running back with Guice, a powerful runner in the mold as Marshawn Lynch.
28. Pittsburgh Steelers
Needs: CB, TE, ILB, OT, QB, NT
Pick: CB Jaire Alexander, Louisville
Analysis: They badly need an inside linebacker to replace Ryan Shazier, and don’t be surprised to see the Steelers make a trade up for one of the top prospects. But they could always use another cornerback, and Alexander returns punts, too.
29. Jacksonville Jaguars
Needs: WR, TE, NT, MLB, CB
Pick: DT Maurice Hurst Jr., Michigan
Analysis: The Jaguars could use more weapons for Blake Bortles, and they could definitely use a tight end to supplement Austin Seferian-Jenkins. But they also have a need for a penetrating defensive tackle, and Hurst gives them a dominant interior pass-rushing presence.
30. Minnesota Vikings
Needs: G, OT, S, OLB, TE
Pick: TE Dallas Goedert, South Dakota State
Analysis: The Vikings could use improvements on the offensive line, and will consider several of the tackle prospects still available. But they might as well get Kirk Cousins another weapon, and Goedert is a terrific receiver and adequate blocker.
31. New England Patriots
Needs: LB, OT, QB, CB, TE, RB
Pick: OT Kolton Miller, UCLA
Analysis: Again, it’s tempting to consider a quarterback here, with Oklahoma State’s Mason Rudolph our choice. But the Patriots badly need a left tackle, and Miller is the choice because of his massive 6-8 frame. The Patriots like big tackles (Nate Solder also was 6-8), and Miller is the only top prospect with the requisite size.