CHIEFS-NINERS: HERE’S THE SUPE TALE OF THE TAPE!

By Michael Bennett

Sunday’s Super Bowl between the Kansas City Chiefs and the San Francisco 49ers is one of huge contrasts:

Patrick Mahomes vs. Jimmy Garoppolo.

Passing vs. rushing.

Offense vs. defense.

Legendary barbecue vs. legendary burritos.

Here’s the FiveThirtyWight.com breakdown, with adjustments for each starting quarterback:

KANSAS CITY CATEGORY SAN FRANCISCO
14-4 Record 15-3
3rd Schedule strength 10th
1743 Elo rating 1671
1st League rank 3rd
Patrick Mahomes Starting QB Jimmy Garoppolo
2nd QB Elo rank 23rd
3rd QB’s supporting cast 1st
5th Avg. QB Elo defense 7th
63.0% 538 forecast 37.0%

The Chiefs are the superior team on paper, coming into the game ranked first in Elo by a healthy margin. Long gone are the days of Kansas City relying on recycled 49er QBs to lead the charge — it now has Mahomes, who currently rates higher relative to a league-average starter (+119) than any other quarterback in franchise history. His rating is much higher than that of Garoppolo, about whom Elo remains very much unsure despite San Francisco’s great season.

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