By Sarah Berkowitz
The Sixers actually have the best chance at the No. 4 or No. 5 overall pick.
No. 1 overall: 15.6%
No. 2 overall: 15.7%
No. 3 overall: 15.6%
No. 4 overall: 22.6%
No. 5 overall: 26.5%
No. 6 overall: 4%
The lowest they can drop is to No. 6 overall.
As part of a midseason three-trade with the Phoenix Suns and Milwaukee Bucks that sent Michael Carter-Williams to the Bucks, the Sixers now own the Los Angles Lakers (from the Suns) first-round pick.
While the Lakers enter the lottery with the fourth-worst record (21-61), the pick is top-five protected. That means if it falls between No. 1 and No. 5, the Lakers keep the pick, and the Sixers get another chance at it next season. The Lakers, however, have plenty of cap space and should have a healthy Kobe Bryant, meaning this might be the Sixers’ best chance having this pick be in the top-10.
Here is a look at the Lakers’ chances on Tuesday night:
No. 1 overall: 11.9%
No. 2 overall: 12.6%
No. 3 overall: 13.3%
No. 4 overall: 9.9%
No. 5 overall: 35.1%
No. 6 overall: 16.0% (Sixers get the pick)
No. 7 overall: 1.2% (Sixers get the pick)
The Sixers also own the Heat’s first round pick, but it is top-10 protected, meaning general manager Sam Hinkie is hoping it falls at No. 11 overall.
The odds of that happening, however, are not in the Sixers’ favors.
Here is a look at the Heat’s odds on Tuesday night:
No. 1 overall: 1.1%
No. 2 overall: 1.3%
No. 3 overall: 1.6%
No. 10 overall: 87%
No. 11 overall: 8.9% (Sixers get the pick)
No. 12 overall: 0.2% (Sixers get the pick)
The best case scenario for the Sixers would be landing the No. 1 overall pick, the Lakers’ pick at No. 6 and the Heat’s pick at No. 11.
The chances of that happening? Just 0.28%.
The Sixers have a 3.7% chance of finishing the night with their own pick, the Lakers pick and the Heat’s pick in some capacity.
The Sixers will own their own pick no matter what, but could leave New York on Tuesday night with nothing else.
The team has a 77.3% chance of having only their own pick in the 2015 NBA Draft. They have a 19% chance at having their own pick, and then either the Lakers’ pick or the Heat’s pick.