Opening Day win forecast: 80.4 Current win forecast: 82.5 Change: 2.1 Current playoff probability: 30.8% Current championship probability: 1.3%
The Phillies have been good, which isn’t a surprise. However, there are reasons to be concerned that the good start won’t continue. The position group should be fine offensively, if Carlos Santana, J.P. Crawford, Nick Williams and Aaron Altherr can collectively climb over replacement level.
The big concern about the Phillies surrounds some hard-to-believe defensive metrics. Philly is on pace to finish with minus-118 defensive runs saved this season. Only the Orioles are worse. According to billjamesonline.com, only the center-field position — mainly occupied by Odubel Herrera — has been better than average. Plus, the Phillies have lost nine runs due to Gabe Kapler’s shifting. The rest of the majors is at plus-100 in DRS credited to shifts because, you know, shifts are supposed to save runs. There is too much athleticism on the Phillies’ roster for this to be happening.
Big question: Will they pull the trigger on a trade for former ace Cole Hamels?