By Ben Sullivan and OddsShark.com
As of this morning, Vegas has the Eagles a 6 1/2-7-point faveorite over the Cowboys Sunday night at the Linc.
That’s a bit rich for my blood.
So I’ll lay off but bet the UNDER.
The last three games between the Eagles and the Cowboys have gone UNDER while Dallas is on a streak of eight straight UNDERs on the road, with those games averaging just 31.25 combined points.
Not to be outdone, eight of the Eagles’ last nine home games have gone UNDER, with those games having an average combined score of 31.89.
Those trends are fine and dandy, but do more recent stats align? Long story short, they do.
Dallas is averaging just 13.5 points per game on the road this season, which is third-worst in the NFL. We could beat up on the Cowboys offense for another few thousand words (they make it easy for us), but credit must be given to each defense, with both ranking in the top five in points allowed. Both allow fewer than 100 rushing yards per game, while Dallas has limited teams to 217 passing yards per game, which is fifth-best in the NFL.
Stopping opponents in the red zone and limiting them to field goals has also been a trademark of both defenses, as they rank in the top six in opponents’ red-zone TD scoring percentage. And bringing it all together is an Eagles offense that has gone through a significant regression since last season when they led the league with 29 points per game. So far this season, they’re averaging just 22.2, a difference of 6.8 points for those of you who don’t have access to a calculator.
The Cowboys have had their way with the Eagles in their annual trip to Lincoln Financial Field as they’re on a run that’s seen them go 5-1 SU and ATS in their last six games in the City of Brotherly Love. Impressive record, yes, but don’t read too much into it as their most recent win there occurred in Week 17 of last season when the Eagles were resting a handful of key players for the playoffs and Dallas only managed to win 6-0. Still, it’s possible that the recent good fortune in Philadelphia can provide a bit of a mental edge and at this point of the season, teams will take any advantage they can get.
For what it’s worth, the Eagles manhandled the Cowboys when they played in Dallas on November 19 last season, beating them by a score of 37-9. Carson Wentz has posted some great numbers in three career games vs Dallas, throwing for 615 yards, five touchdowns and no interceptions. Dak Prescott has not had the same level of success vs Philly, however, throwing three touchdowns and four interceptions with a 65.7 QB rating in four games.
The sinking ship that is the Dallas Cowboys has been horrible following a Monday Night Football game in recent years, as the team has lost nine straight in that spot and has failed to cover the spread in five straight. The Cowboys are coming off an embarrassing loss at home vs the Titans on Monday night and perhaps complicating matters for them is that the Eagles are on a nice stretch in prime-time games, going 7-1 SU and 6-2 ATS in their last eight night games.
If you actually read the content above, it should come as no surprise that I’m all over UNDER 43. There’s simply too many relevant trends and stats to support it and even if one of the offenses plays better than expected, the UNDER still stands a great chance of hitting. I find 43 points to be rather generous for UNDER bettors considering Cowboys games have had an average combined score of 38.13 while Philly is at 41.75.
As for the spread, I won’t be betting it. It seems a little high and is perhaps an overreaction to Dallas’ ugly loss in Week 9, but I wouldn’t be surprised to see the Eagles dominate after making proper adjustments during their bye week. Speaking of that, the Eagles are 16-3 SU in their last 19 games following a bye.